Theft is Cutting into Ebike Sales

Everyone who rides an ebike loves it: They are fun, fast, and an easy way to get around. But, after a boom in ebike sales during the pandemic, sales have plateaued. One significant contributor to this plateau is fear of bike theft. Potential buyers are hesitant to invest in something that costs over $1,000 if they worry it might be stolen.

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The state of ebike sales

Ebike sales in the US have grown surprisingly, rising from almost zero ten years ago to over a million units per year in 2022. Since then, sales have plateaued. The main reason is that the pandemic caused a surge in demand for ebikes. People wanted an ebike as a way to get outside or commute without using public transportation. That surge pulled sales forward to 2020-2022 that might have otherwise occurred in 2023 and 2024. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

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The impact of theft on ebike sales

According to research from People for Bikes (the national bike advocacy and trade association), 61% of prospective ebike buyers are holding back due to concerns about theft. The only greater reservation is the price of the ebike itself. This fear is not unfounded. At Tempo, we analyzed data on over 100,000 ebikes registered in Bike Index (a stolen bike registry). What we learned is that registered ebikes have about a 1% chance of being stolen in a given year. With several million ebikes already on the streets of the US, this translates to tens of thousands of thefts each year. There’s a good chance that you or someone you know has been the victim of bike theft - an emotional as well as a financial blow.

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Price vs. theft

While price remains the number one barrier to purchasing an ebike, prices have been falling, so it is less of a barrier today than it was two years ago when People for Bikes published their study, and pandemic demand kept ebike prices high. Brands have since scaled up production, key technologies like batteries have become cheaper, and nearly every brand is offering generous discounts to prop up sales. To understand stagnating sales, we need to look beyond pandemic demand and price.

Although it’s challenging to quantify exactly how much this fear of theft impacts sales, it is even more of a factor than range anxiety, a basic concern shared by all kinds of electric vehicle buyers. Other factors like the bike’s appearance, weight, or technological features don’t come close to price, theft, and range in giving prospective buyers pause. Brands are already working hard on price, and batteries are getting better and cheaper every year. It’s time to look at theft.

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Strategies to combat theft

What can ebike companies do to alleviate customers’ fear of theft and grow sales faster? At Tempo, where this is our focus, we think about theft in terms of Prevention, Recovery, and Replacement:

Prevention

Ebike brands can help prevent theft by including physical locks or electronic security measures that make it harder for thieves to steal the bike.

Recovery

Brands can aid recovery by registering all their bikes with Bike Index. Bike Index is checked by police and others who find stolen bikes, making it easier to reconnect the bike with its owner.

Replacement

Offering insurance or a replacement plan can provide peace of mind to prospective buyers, and a backstop if prevention and recovery efforts aren’t enough. 

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Tempo’s theft replacement plans cover prevention, recovery, and replacement

At Tempo, our goal is to get more people riding ebikes by reducing ebike theft. We have created a unique theft protection program that ebike brands can offer to their customers in order to affordably and effectively address their legitimate theft concerns. The program includes:

• Visible warning labels on the bike that inform thieves that the bike is registered and will be harder to sell as stolen goods, helping to prevent theft in the first place.

• Unique identifiers that are hard for thieves to find and remove, so prospective buyers or law enforcement can return the bike to its owner, aiding in recovery if the ebike is stolen.

• Replacement policy that will buy a new bike if the original bike is stolen and cannot be recovered.

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The bargain hunters have already bought, but the theft-averse have not

In the current ebike market, brands are sitting on inventory and offering deep discounts to encourage buyers (it’s a great time to buy an ebike!). However, further discounting might not be the thing that brings in new customers. An ebike that costs $100 less before it is stolen is still $1000+ lost. 

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We know that 61% of prospective customers are sitting on the sidelines at least in part due to fear of theft. What would they pay for a bike that would be replaced if it were stolen? Would they even expect a discount? Tempo’s informal survey of ebike owners indicate they would gladly pay around $100 per year to protect a $2000 ebike. That is about half of what most bike insurance policies cost, but much more than what Tempo charges for a theft replacement plan.

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Addressing theft could be an effective strategy to boost sales, find new customers, elevate your brand, continue to grow the ebike market, and continue to make our communities and our planet happier, healthier places to live.

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